Multiple Crises Drive Increased Cooperation between Moldova and Romania
By: Will Zadeskey March 2, 2023
Since Russia invaded Ukraine one year ago, Moldova and Romania have constructed a historic partnership. This cooperation is crucial in the face of Russian threats and the energy crisis. Romania has pledged to stand with Moldova in "any scenario", supported Moldova's aspirations to join the EU, and provided desperately needed energy assistance to Chisinau.
Political and economic cooperation between the Republic of Moldova (RM) and Romania has recently reached unprecedented heights. A variety of crises – Russian threats to Moldovan security, energy shortages, and domestic unrest – as well as Moldova’s aspirations to join the European Union (EU) have led to historic collaboration between the two neighboring states. Since Moldova is not a member of NATO, this Romanian assistance is crucial to preserving and strengthening political stability in Moldova in the face of domestic and foreign threats. Such a historic partnership is likely to strengthen until at least late 2024, when both countries will hold their next presidential elections.
Building Political Bonds
Cooperation between Moldova and Romania, the only Romanian-speaking states in the world, is not new, but the war in Ukraine has had deep negative consequences for Moldova. Being on the border of this conflict has led to energy shortages and heightened fears that Russia could invade the small European nation. A Russian invasion or domestic instability in Moldova would greatly effect Romania – an EU and NATO member. Further, Romanians and Moldovans share a culture, language, and history and are considered by some to be a single people. For these reasons, Romania seeks to bolster their smaller neighbor.
Pro-EU leaders in both Bucharest and Chisinau have facilitated increased cooperation. The historic 2020 election of pro-EU President Maia Sandu heralded a shift toward European integration for Moldova. A year later, Sandu’s liberal Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority, placing EU supporters atop the whole Moldovan government for the first time since 2016. On the Romanian side, President Klaus Iohannis (elected 2014) and Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca (since Nov. 2021) staunchly support Moldova’s EU candidacy and close relations with Chisinau.
Within the last year the two sides have forged deep political bonds. On March 25, 2022, representatives of both governments held joint roundtable discussions regarding how Romania can assist Moldovan attempts to join the European Union. During the meeting, Igor Grosu, President of the Moldovan Parliament, admitted that his country’s path into the EU goes through Romania. Adrian Dupu, the Romanian Secretary for Relations with RM characterized relations between his country and Moldova as the closest in the last 30 years.
Cooperation has been committed and consistent at the highest levels of the two governments. President Sandu and President Klaus Iohannis have held at least seven bilateral meetings in the last three years. During an August 2022 meeting, Romanian support continued to solidify with President Iohannis declaring that, “Romania will continue to be the most important supporter of the Republic of Moldova, its citizens and its European integration.”
The Romania-Moldova partnership reached new peaks in late February of this year with stronger, definite rhetoric from President Iohannis. On February 22, the Romanian president called out Russia’s threats to Moldova and clearly stated that Romania is ready and “willing to support Moldova in any scenario.” During a February 23 meeting with his Moldovan counterpart, Iohannis declared again that Moldova does not stand alone in the face of foreign threats.
Combatting the Energy Crisis in Moldova
Since December 2022, Romania has provided Moldova with desperately needed natural gas, which has helped avert potentially destabilizing, long-term blackouts and bolstered Moldovan energy security. Prior to Romanian assistance, Moldova lacked energy security, as it relied on the disputed Transnistria region, war-torn Ukraine, and the Russian state-company Gazprom for its electricity. Since Gazprom’s late 2022 decision to cut natural gas shipments to Moldova by 30%, Moldova has faced an energy crisis. Soon after, Romania pledged to send natural gas to their neighbor.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure worsened Moldova’s energy shortages. The first country-wide power outage occurred on November 15 after a Russian strike on Ukraine destroyed power lines bringing electricity to Moldova. The country suffered another “massive blackout” after a similar incident on November 23. Power was restored several hours later. On December 3, Romania began sending natural gas to Moldova through a brand-new pipeline. According to President Iohannis, Romania has offered Moldova “between 80-90% of the electricity needs of the Republic of Moldova.”
Threat of Political Instability in Moldova
Russia continues to threaten Moldova and works to foment political instability in the country, making Romanian solidarity all the more vital. In early February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened that Sandu’s Moldova could become the “next Ukraine.” On February 13, President Sandu confirmed Ukrainian assertions that Russia has been working with Moldovan individuals to orchestrate a coup d'etat involving hostage taking and violence. Just last week, Moscow raised fears that the Transnistria conflict could turn hot again. Further, new Moldovan PM Dorin Recean confirmed statements by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy that Russia has plans to capture Chisinau airport. Although these Russian threats are likely only a ploy to keep Ukrainian troops near Transnistria and away from the eastern frontlines, this talk fosters instability in Moldovan society.
Moscow has embarked on a coordinated campaign to destabilize Moldova and empower the pro-Russia opposition, the Party of Socialists and the Shor Party. Russia’s decision to cut natural gas shipments to Moldova has created a scenario where Kremlin-proxies in the Moldovan opposition can blame the liberal government for the energy crisis and then organize large-scale protests. In September 2022, the populist and pro-Russian Shor party, led by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, launched a series of widespread anti-government protests throughout the country. On September 8, about 6,500 protesters gathered in Chisinau demanding the resignation of the pro-West government. The organizers claimed that 20,000 people took part. The Washington Post found that Shor’s party received extensive support from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).
The stakes are very high for Moldova. Not only do the anti-EU parties like Shor and the Party of Socialists support the Kremlin, but their ideologies embrace autocracy and oligarchy. Regardless of whether they come to power through elections or force, it is very likely that these parties would severely roll back Moldova’s democratic development and hinder plans to join the EU. Moreover, the unwavering Romanian political and economic support is crucial to preserving Moldovan democracy, combatting the energy crisis, and furthering Moldova’s security and European integration.
A Long-Term Partnership
It is very likely that the Moldova-Romania relationship will continue to grow at least until late 2024 – when both nations will hold their next presidential elections. Until then, Iohannis and Sandu are likely to strengthen the political and economic coordination between their two countries. Further, Moldova plans to increase its military spending in the coming year, yet it remains to be seen whether Romanian assistance will expand to include military aid. Nonetheless, Romania stands as the most committed international partner for Moldova in the long-term.